Below demonstrating anything apparently strange and hence suspicious: Four sequential fights the show was posted by known Youtuber NepentheZ, and every time it ended up with the opposition, who finished up rating. Bad luck of scripting? We did the maths.

As usual, we decided to take the rational approach rather than jump to the most convenient conclusion.

 

Nep_tackle4

 

As expected, the clip is accompanied by a variety of conspiracy theories in the Reddit thread that followed after the clip was posted:

“Pretty much confirms our worst fears of handicap still existing this year.”

“scripting at its best, well done EA”

What probability theory tells us

What we discover within the cut is just a series of four fights, which with the staff that is bright end up for whatever reason. For simplicity's welfare, we could begin by taking a look at each handle being a 50/50 situation, as it could have two probable outcomes: Often you eliminate or acquire the ball. Hence, the series of discusses in the video becomes comparable to throwing a money four times and turning each time to a head. of flipping four brains in AROW the likelihood is calculated as:

1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/16

Accepting that NepentheZ' potential for winning each tackle was 50%, of dropping four discusses in a row, the probability is 1/16. Based on our latest match history trial, the FUT 16 periods match that is average includes 28 tackles. If we assume that fights are 50 / 50 conditions normally, about 88% of most FUT conditions suits can contain sequences of four consecutive fights being won by the same player.

As he thinks herself consequently, the specific situation represented in NepentheZ' video is not any where near as uncommon. Which conclusion only becomes sharper if we look at those four tackles' real instances.

The reality is a bit more complex than 50/50

For sure, the stark reality is much more complex, as well as the chances every time to 50 / 50. In-practice, the outcome of a handle depends on the way the people are put, their moment their toughness etc.

If we concentrate on placement, it's worth remembering that the tackling situations occur in a defensive condition, where NepentheZ is treating “out of his box” and away from hos own objective. His staff is positioned within the pack, and thus he is treating away from the majority of his players because he's protecting. This is especially commonplace for the first two fights. On the subject of the first tackle at 08:02, we observe NepentheZ having 6 people plus his keeper behind the basketball, while two people are put too much to the to be a part of the activities. Even though the chances are far more good to NepentheZ on tackle No 3 and #4, I notice no evident problems in either of those situations. And, obviously, you can find twice in a row. For guide, see the display dump portion further along.

Conclusions - foul play or not?

Four fights going exactly the same method is far from as uncommon that individuals tend to assume in a view, as seen above. Specifically as soon as your are fixing “out of your box” while guarding, of finding the basketball likelihood just aren't excellent.

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